The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ System

November 11th, 2013 by Kevin McCartney Leave a reply »



The Toronto Maple Leafs have become a lightning rod for debate about shooting percentages, with many arguing the Leafs have been lucky and will not continue their winning ways. Is it possible the Leafs have designed a system to score more goals on fewer shots than other teams? 

Since Randy Carlyle took over the team on March 2, 2012, the Leafs' shooting percentage has climbed consistently. In the lockout shortened 2013 season, the team led the league—converting on over 10.5% of their even strength shots compared to a league average of 8.7%. This season, the Leafs rank 4th overall, and whether it's luck, skill or coaching, these things have become an important question for deciding if the Leafs are a playoff quality team.

To my eye, the Leafs have designed a fast-break offence that generates high quality chances in transition. Even more dangerously, their quick transitions create a gap between the opposition's defensemen and forwards that the Leafs exploit for rebounds and dangerous lateral passes. Their high shooting percentage is structural—not pure luck—and will need to be ...

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