Will Alex Ovechkin Be a 50-Goal Scorer for the Barry Trotz-Led Capitals?

August 7th, 2014 by Jonathan Willis Leave a reply »

Alex Ovechkin’s place in the pantheon of NHL superstars is controversial because of concerns about his two-way play, but what isn’t controversial is that he’s one of the best pure scorers in the game of hockey. Even during a 2013-14 season that was in some ways difficult, Ovechkin managed to lead the league with 51 goals.  

How many will he score next season?

For any player, goals are a product of two distinct but related functions. The first of these is shot volume; with all else being equal, a player who shoots more will score more. The second is shooting percentage, or the efficiency with which a player converts those shots to goals. Fluctuation is expected from year to year in both numbers, but for the most, part shot volume tends to be more constant while shooting percentage can bounce around significantly.

Ovechkin’s even-strength track record over the last four seasons bears out that general statement:



While Ovechkin’s shooting percentage has actually been pretty durable over the last four seasons, we see one example of a wild swing—in 2010-11. Ovechk ...

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