Toronto Maple Leafs’ Fall Isn’t Imminent, It Has Already Happened

November 22nd, 2013 by Jonathan Willis Leave a reply »

The Toronto Maple Leafs are not a very good team, and their record proves it.

"Now hold on a moment," the reader is doubtlessly saying. Toronto is 13-8-1 on the season and, entering action on Friday, sits fourth in the Eastern Conference. It’s one thing to argue that the team isn’t good, but how does its record show it?

That’s the argument that will be made below, and in some detail, but the simple explanation is as follows. Thanks to a bunch of (mostly unrepeatable) factors, Toronto got off to a 6-1-0 start. Since then, the team has barely trodden water, going 7-7-1 despite elite goaltending.

Again, the reader is not expected to take our word for it. Let’s look at the difference between the Maple Leafs’ start and what they have done lately.

We’ll start with special teams, since that’s where the most interesting numbers are to be found.

On the penalty kill, Toronto currently boasts an 82.4 percent success rate, good for 16th in the NHL. What’s interesting is the split. In the first seven games, where Toronto went 6-1-0, the team went 24-for-27 whi ...

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