The accomplishments of an NHL general manager is not easy to assess. Exactly how much of a team's success is owed to the general manager, and how much of it is just pure luck? That's the question we can answer with an economic model of hockey.
Take the Pittsburgh Penguins, Chicago Blackhawks and Los Angeles Kings, and compare them with the Boston Bruins, Anaheim Ducks and Detroit Red Wings. We have two models of how to win a Stanley Cup.
The first group found success through years of "tanking" and accumulation of upper first round picks. The second group secured long-term success through trades and free-agent signing. Certainly the impact of the GM is different in the two groups!
No offense to Oilers GM Steve Tambellini, but with three consecutive No. 1 overall picks (Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov), it's kind of hard to screw up. Therefore, to model the assets of a hockey team, we need to separate a team's natural growth and induced growth in assets.
Since NHL is set up in a way that balances the powers of the teams through draft picks, we can assume a fair game. In other words, all teams will win equal number of Stanley Cups in the lo ...
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Article written by Peter
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