Are the Colorado Avalanche Really as Good as Their Record Suggests?

December 3rd, 2013 by Jonathan Willis Leave a reply »

A year ago, the Colorado Avalanche had the second-worst record in the NHL, ahead of only the awful Florida Panthers. This season, the team is 19-6-0 and on pace for 125 points. When adjusting for games played, the team trails only San Jose and Chicago in the NHL standings.

The question now is where the Avs’ true talent level lies.

Are they a bad team playing well above their true level of ability? Are they the great team the early-season standings suggest they are? Or does the truth fall somewhere between those two extremes?

Before comparing the results of this season to 2012-13, let’s look at the possibility of schedule effects.

Colorado has had a slightly favourable schedule early in one way, with 14 home games to 11 road contests, but the team has a better record on the road than at home, so it seems safe to assume that isn’t driving success.

Also not responsible for Colorado’s great run is the quality of opposition the team is facing. Sixteen of 30 teams (53.3 percent) make the playoffs every year and Colorado has faced 2012-13 playoff teams in 14 of its 25 contests (56.0 ...

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