Suns vs. Heat: Miami Favored To End Its Losing Streak Against Elite Point Guards

November 17th, 2010 by Reservoir God Leave a reply »
"Steve Nash droppn 30 tonight"

That's the text message my brother sent me this afternoon before the Phoenix Suns play the Miami Heat at 7 P.M. There's been a lot of talk about the Heat's struggles with elite point guards and my brother decided to add his own thoughts to the conversation. Can he be right? Will Nash torch the Heat at the point guard position tonight?

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Elite point guards have been three times more productive than the average point guard against Miami. They are only averaging 14 points per 48 minu ...

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