Plain and simple, Dirk Nowitzki is one of the best scores the NBA has ever seen. Since entering the league in 1998, Nowitzki showed he had a rare talent. Standing at 7-feet tall, he brought a brand new playing style into the light with his ability to stretch defenses to the three-point line.
After a rough rookie campaign, Nowitzki started to show the world how his playing style presented match-up problems that gave nightmares to coaches around the league. In just a few seasons, he was already considered one of the best scorers in the game.
Many players build their careers using their ability to score. In league history there have been plenty of athletes that have excelled in the offensive end. But being a great scorer does not mean you are bound to break historical records. Often health, endurance, and consistency are the main factors that impede a player’s continuum towards record books.
In his 12-year NBA career, Dirk Nowitzki has only missed 64 games, with only 12 of those games taking place in the past 5 years. That combined with an average of over 20 points per game in each of the last 10 seasons has allowed Dirk Nowitzki to amass 21,111 points so far in his career.
At 32 years of age, Nowitzki has not shown any signs of slowing down. Recently, Dirk Nowitzki signed a four-year contract that will have him as the Dallas Mavericks franchise player through the 2014-2015 NBA season. Similar numbers to the past few seasons can be easily expected from the German big man. As far as playing beyond his current deal, that remains a mystery.
As a former NBA Most Valuable Player and proven superstar, Nowitzki has not been able to win an NBA championship. If that does not happen in the next four years, Nowitzki might try to chase a ring somewhere else. There is also the chance Dallas develops into championship team and lures Nowitzki into playing until the age of 37 or perhaps 38 by signing him to a one or two-year deal.
Assuming Dirk Nowitzki keeps a steady production through the next few seasons and shows a slight decline as he gets older, his production should allow him to enter the records books as only the fifth player in NBA history to reach the 30,000 point total. The only other NBA player currently chasing such feat is Kobe Bryant who stands at 25,790 points and is also 32 years of age.
If a 10-percent decline in production and only 2 games missed per season is assumed for Nowitzki throughout the next few years his point total should look like this:
|
Season |
Age |
Point Total |
Pts/game |
|
present |
32 |
21111 |
22.9 |
|
2010-11 |
32 |
2027 |
25.3 |
|
2010-12 |
33 |
1824 |
22.8 |
|
2010-13 |
34 |
1642 |
20.5 |
|
2010-14 |
35 |
1478 |
18.5 |
|
2010-15 |
36 |
1330 |
16.6 |
|
2010-16 |
37 |
1197 |
15.0 |
|
Total |
30609 |
Thinking of Dirk Nowitzki averaging 15 points per game at the age of 37 is not unrealistic. It would actually be a bit unrealistic to think that Dirk would barely average 20 points in just 2 seasons. Regardless, numbers don’t lie and they clearly show how the 30,000 Point Club is a mark Dirk should be able to reach.
Accomplishing such a goal as this is not at the top of Dirk Nowitzki’s wish list. He is too good for that. But it would be nice for fans and his legacy to go on the record books.
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