5 Reasons Why the Oklahoma City Thunder Will Be The West’s No. 2 Seed

October 8th, 2010 by Jason Platzer Leave a reply »
Over the last few weeks, ESPN has been rolling out it's annual forecasts for the upcoming NBA Season. This year, stat guru John Hollinger has projected that Oklahoma City will go 49-33 (2nd in the Northwest Division, 4th in the Western Conference). In the latest Basketball Prospectus, they're projected to go 48-34 according to the SCHOENE system they use over at Basketball Prospectus. What then can we expect from the Thunder this season?


It's important to keep in mind that these are statistical projection systems. As the guys at Basketball Prospectus explain, "The APBRmetrics message board tracked the accuracy of several statistical projections during the 2009-2010 season, with SCHOENE placing second in terms of root mean squared error - the average squared error of the projections". Ideally, you'd want a standard error of 0 (meaning no error). That would indicate that your projection system would perfectly predict actual performance.Thus, minimizing the error (i.e. trying to get it as close to 0 as possible) is what projection systems are all about. SCHOENE's root mean-squared error (RMSE for short) was 9.44 (2nd) vs. Jon Nichols Component Score System which had an ...

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